{"id":83864,"date":"2022-11-15T09:45:23","date_gmt":"2022-11-15T08:45:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sms77.io\/?p=83864"},"modified":"2023-04-19T09:35:42","modified_gmt":"2023-04-19T07:35:42","slug":"why-is-the-number-of-sms-increasing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.seven.io\/en\/blog\/why-is-the-number-of-sms-increasing\/","title":{"rendered":"Why is the number of SMS increasing again? – An overview"},"content":{"rendered":"

It’s official: In 2021 more SMS were sent than in the previous year \u2013 what are the reasons?<\/h2>\n

It came as a surprise to many\u2013 the 2021 Annual Report of the Bundesnetzagentur<\/a> (German Federal Network Agency) shows: in 2021, the total number of SMS sent in Germany increased again for the first time since 2012. In 2020, a total of around 7 billion SMS were sent, in 2021 that number was 7.8 billion – i.e. 0.8 billion more than in the previous year.<\/p>\n

Last year, we already reported on the sharp rise in SMS sent in companies<\/a>. Now the trend can be seen in overall SMS sending as well.<\/p>\n

The obvious question is: Why is the number of SMS increasing again? And: will SMS sending continue to grow? Let’s take a closer look at the possible reasons.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section>

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In this article:<\/h3>\n
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  1. Why is the number of SMS increasing? The official assumption<\/a><\/li>\n
  2. How important are COVID test SMS in this increase?<\/a><\/li>\n
  3. Appointment reminders and other messages to patients<\/a><\/li>\n
  4. More online shopping<\/a><\/li>\n
  5. The uninvited guest: spam<\/a><\/li>\n
  6. Last but not least: Two-factor authentication<\/a><\/li>\n
  7. Why is the number of SMS increasing? Many pennies make a dollar<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\t\t<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>
    <\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section>

    Why is the number of SMS increasing? The official assumption<\/h3>\n

    In 2021, the SMS traffic increased by 800 million SMS, compared to the previous year. The Federal Network Agency itself says:<\/p>\n

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    The reason for the increasing SMS use could be, among other things, the so-called two-factor authentication, with which consumers can identify themselves in addition to the normal password, for example, with payment services.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

    Source: Federal Network Agency press release, 2022<\/a>, translated by us<\/p>\n

    There is no question about it \u2013 the sending of 2FA messages and OTPs is certainly playing a key role in the increase. However, as the Agency also says, it is not the sole reason for the increase.\u00a0We take a look at other possible reasons for the increased SMS sending.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section>

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    Please note<\/h3>\n

    We try to make assumptions about how many SMS messages were sent in which areas in 2021 using known data.
    \nHowever,<\/strong> as there are no reliable numbers on various aspects \u2013 for example, the proportion of SMS messages in two-factor authentication \u2013 the numbers in our examples are, in part, based on estimates.<\/p>\n

    We can therefore give no guarantee that the figures are accurate. Nevertheless, they do provide an insight into the scale on which SMS is still being sent.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\t\t<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section>

    How important are COVID test SMS in this increase?<\/h3>\n

    As an SMS gateway provider, if someone had asked us “Hey, why is SMS traffic increasing?” our first guess would not necessarily have been the growing need for 2FA SMS (although this is very real, more on that later).
    \nInstead, we see a different purpose for which SMS has been increasingly used over the past two years in our own SMS traffic: Sending test results of COVID tests.<\/p>\n

    Even with low test volumes, the amount of SMS sent with test results is large enough to account for at least some of the increase.<\/p>\n

    Let’s look at some numbers.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>

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    Calculation example 1<\/h4>\n

    In April 2021, there were more than 15,000<\/strong> test sites in Germany (source: \u00c4rzte Zeitung online<\/a>).<\/p>\n

    We do not have exact information on how many test sites actually send SMS as notifications, so we have to estimate. We consider our estimates to be very conservative at this point \u2013 probably at least some of the numbers are higher than calculated.<\/p>\n

    Let’s assume that ten percent of test sites send text messages to tested individuals and that each site tests twenty individuals per day. In this case, they would send 30,0000 text messages a day<\/strong>. Even if we assume that testing would only take place on weekdays (at least 303), that would be 9,090,000 SMS<\/strong> in 2021.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\t\t<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>

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    Calculation example 2<\/h4>\n

    According to the German National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians, 211,858,798 test kits<\/strong> were billed in Germany in the period from July to December 2021. Let us therefore assume that 423,717,596 tests were billed in the whole of 2021<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

    If, again, ten percent of those tested receive a text message, approximately 42,371,759 text messages<\/strong> with test results were sent in 2021.<\/p>\n

    Even if an SMS were sent in only five percent of cases, 21,635,879 SMS would still be sent<\/strong> that were not sent in this way in previous years.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\t\t<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>

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    Calculation example 3<\/h4>\n

    In July 2021, we published a case study of a Corona test center<\/a> that sent test results via SMS.<\/p>\n

    In this example, six test stations sent an average of 2489 SMS per day, or about 414 SMS per test station per day<\/strong>. Let’s assume 200 messages per day in case other test stations had a lower test volume or sent exclusively the test result via SMS and not \u2013 as in the example \u2013 also a confirmation of the test date. We also take 15,000 test stations, as in calculation example 1.<\/p>\n

    With 303 working days in 2021, we can assume in this case that at least 90,900,000 SMS<\/strong> were sent in total for ten percent of the test stations.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\t\t<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>

    Of course, these sample calculations may raise some questions, especially where the figures are quite far apart:<\/p>\n